Begin with the decision the NGO must make
A baseline study in Kenya becomes valuable when it changes an implementation decision. Before interviewing households in Nairobi or Mombasa, a programme team should decide what it needs to learn about access, quality, affordability, knowledge or behaviour. A pair of urban sites can illuminate how an intervention might work in different settings; it cannot establish results for every district, rural settlement or hard-to-reach population.
An effective baseline begins with the programme theory of change. Map the intended activities, outputs, outcomes and assumptions, then ask which assumptions are most uncertain. For an education intervention, access to classes and learning outcomes are different constructs; for a livelihood project, training participation is not the same as improved earnings. Define the measurement questions before selecting a questionnaire platform. The final study plan should say who will review the data and what programme choices each indicator is expected to support.
Understand how research geography works in Kenya
Fieldwork should follow the administrative vocabulary used in Kenya: counties, sub-counties and wards. These structures help researchers identify the correct boundaries, local gatekeepers and likely sources of population lists, but they do not automatically supply a complete probability sampling frame. First establish which boundaries apply to the actual programme area, then verify maps and household or facility counts. Administrative labels should be used only after checking their exact local meaning and relationship to the study population.
Define the target population and sampling frame
Sampling quality depends on how people can enter the study, not simply how many questionnaires are completed. Construct a frame with clearly defined geographic and eligibility boundaries. If households are selected through multiple stages, track selected clusters and household selection rules; if facilities are sampled, separate a facility census from interviews with its users. Anticipate nonresponse and predefine replacement procedures. A two-city study can estimate outcomes for well-defined urban populations when designed for that purpose, but it cannot automatically claim to represent every region.
Baseline research in Nairobi: designing the first city sample
In Nairobi, where the city functions as a diverse inland metropolis with technology and services, a baseline might start with an inventory of programme catchments and service points. If the intervention concerns food security and cash assistance, the field team should test measures of food consumption patterns, payment experience, market access and coping strategies. Interviewer routes should deliberately cover selected neighbourhoods rather than concentrating around accessible offices and major roads. Compare the register of intended participants with people who actually use services; discrepancies may expose targeting or access problems. Whether the unit is a household, young person, facility or beneficiary must remain consistent through analysis.
Baseline research in Mombasa: testing a contrasting city context
Mombasa deserves an independent field plan because it is a coastal port city with tourism and trading activity. Before importing the Nairobi questionnaire unchanged, conduct a short cognitive pilot and verify where the target population resides, travels and receives services. The sample allocation should reflect the stated comparison question, not an arbitrary equal split made for convenience. If the NGO needs a comparison between the two cities, agree the minimum precision and subgroup coverage needed. Findings should describe the observed difference without attributing it automatically to geography or programme performance.
Build indicators that can be measured again
Build the questionnaire from the analysis plan, not the reverse. Start with a table matching each evaluation question to an indicator, variable, source and planned comparison. Test whether the measure is sensitive to the type of change the programme could plausibly cause. Specify recall periods clearly, especially for income, attendance, expenditure or service visits. Record contextual variables that could explain outcomes without confusing them with programme results. A carefully defined small indicator set is more valuable than a long survey full of loosely connected questions.
Choose appropriate survey and qualitative methods
Selecting CAPI, CATI or CAWI is a coverage decision before it is a technology decision. CAPI helps where interviewers must locate households or verify assets. CATI can be efficient when phone numbers form a credible frame, but shared phones and unreachable numbers may affect who responds. CAWI works for digitally reachable populations, not automatically for everyone. Add observation and interviews with service providers when respondent accounts need contextual interpretation. Document any mixed-mode effects before combining the results.
Translate and pilot instruments for local respondents
Tools and consent scripts should be tested in Swahili, English and relevant local languages. A language that works for a formal meeting may not be the clearest language for a household interview, and bilingual respondents may switch vocabulary when describing sensitive experiences. Prepare a glossary for core constructs, reconcile translations with the source questionnaire and role-play difficult questions. Recruit interviewers for language competence and cultural familiarity, not only device skills. Translation changes need recorded approval so that future midline and endline rounds can preserve conceptual equivalence.
Design field operations around actual access conditions
Operationally, county and ward boundaries provide meaningful local sampling geography. Plan interviewer assignments, transport, safe operating hours, supervision and escalation around this reality. An initial reconnaissance visit can check listing feasibility, accessibility, the actual duration of an interview and any mismatch between administrative maps and lived settlement boundaries. A rigorous pilot should include sample-selection rehearsal, consent practice, skip-logic tests and mock data submission. Budget for replacements that comply with the original selection procedure rather than allowing opportunistic substitution when a respondent is absent.
Protect consent, privacy and vulnerable participants
Ethics is an operational design requirement. Explain that participation does not guarantee benefits or change programme eligibility. Avoid collecting precise location, images or contact details simply because a platform allows it. Where safeguarding topics or vulnerable populations are involved, establish a clear response protocol and train interviewers not to promise confidentiality they cannot protect. Consent wording should be understandable in the language used for the actual conversation. Institutional and local permissions must be checked for the relevant sites and activities.
Check quality while fieldwork is still active
A strong fieldwork control room watches more than the number of completes. It tracks sample progress, refusals, subgroup balance, interview duration, interviewer-level anomalies and unresolved incidents. Supervisors should review records daily while corrective action is possible. Back-check a defined selection of interviews, protect respondent confidentiality and investigate rather than automatically punish statistical outliers. Keep a log of tool changes, retraining and replacements so the final analysis can explain exactly what happened in the field.
Analyse change without overstating causal claims
An NGO needs a baseline report it can actually use. Begin with a documented cleaned dataset, define denominators for every headline indicator and explain exclusions. Examine geographic and demographic inequalities rather than hiding them inside overall means. When a city comparison is illustrative, describe it as illustrative. Baseline outcomes describe starting conditions; they do not prove that a future intervention will work. Recommendations should identify practical programme adjustments and the evidence needed to assess them later.
Turn baseline evidence into action in Kenya
For a hypothetical NGO programme focused on food security and cash assistance, the useful deliverable is not simply a table showing food consumption patterns, payment experience, market access and coping strategies. It is an explanation of which barriers can be addressed through the intervention and which reflect factors outside programme control. If participants know a service exists but rarely use it, explore cost, location, opening time, quality, trust and social norms. Recommend a response only when the evidence distinguishes among those explanations. The baseline should also register external shocks and programme exposure dates to protect later interpretation.
At the end of the exercise, the NGO should be able to say what the baseline means for Kenya, what it means specifically for Nairobi and Mombasa, and what it does not mean. Set a schedule for repeating core indicators, preferably at comparable seasonal periods. Keep the sample frame, contact protocol, questionnaire versions, interview-date records and calculation syntax. Use a short management session to decide whether targeting, staffing, communication or referral practices should change. Record those decisions so the endline can examine both outcomes and the adaptation process.
What a useful baseline report should deliver
A strong Kenya baseline report should provide a clearly defined study population, an honest sampling account, accepted-interview totals, response outcomes, reproducible indicators and accessible recommendations. City comparisons should carry their own denominators and limitations. The report can be supported by a clean dataset, fieldwork memo, codebook and monitoring matrix, for internal analysis and subsequent measurement rounds. Any gaps in coverage should be visible so implementers can decide whether further listing or targeted qualitative inquiry is needed before expanding activities.
How Surveysphere Africa can support
Surveysphere Africa helps NGOs and development organisations design baseline studies, define indicators, plan samples, manage fieldwork, verify data quality and turn findings into actionable programme decisions. For work involving Nairobi, Mombasa or wider coverage in Kenya, the research design should begin with the intended decision and the population it needs to represent, then adapt responsibly to the local context.
Related guidance
For the continent-wide view, read our guide to baseline, midline and endline studies.
Our services for research in Kenya
We run research across African markets. Start with these services for work in Kenya:
- Monitoring, evaluation and learning in Kenya: Baseline, midline, endline and programme evaluation.
- Social and development research in Kenya: Qualitative and quantitative studies for social and development programmes.
We also offer: Outsourced fieldwork, Market and consumer research, Public health research, Policy, economic and institutional research, Data analytics and insights visualisation.
